Commentary by Harold Hough

Maybe the devil is wearing snowshoes because that can be the only reason why the biggest international supporter of the Global Warming Theory is backtracking on its own data.

In a recently released paper from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), they admitted that the warming rate measured over the last several years is less than half of what had been earlier claimed, and that their models “may have exaggerated” the effects of carbon emissions in impacting climate. This is going to throw a monkey wrench into the policies of environmentalists and politicians who are pushing for greater government regulation over carbon emissions.

According to the British Daily Mail, which received a copy of the report before it was released, the IPCC makes the extraordinary concession that the world has been warming at only just over half the rate claimed by the IPCC in its last assessment, published in 2007.

Back then, it said that the planet was warming at a rate of 0.2C every decade – a figure it claimed was in line with the forecasts made by computer climate models.

But the new report says the true figure since 1951 has been only 0.12C per decade – a rate far below even the lowest computer prediction. Apparently the rate of rise has stopped, which calls into question if the rise was merely statistical noise instead of a real trend. They also admit large parts of the world were as warm as they are now for decades at a time between 950 and 1250 AD – centuries before the Industrial Revolution, and when the population and CO2 levels were both much lower.

Adding to the embarrassment is the fact that some data shows actual cooling. The IPCC admits that while computer models forecast a decline in Antarctic sea ice, it has actually grown to a new record high. In addition, there is a recent report that Arctic ice expanded dramatically over the past year – contrary to predictions that it would disappear altogether in 2013. To their credit, they don’t do an “Al Gore” and try to convince us that the growth in Antarctic sea ice is proof of global warming. Instead, they say that don’t know why the ice fields have grown.

That isn’t the only problem with IPCC predictions. They also predicted more hurricanes as a result of global warming. Instead, there are fewer hurricanes than in previous decades.

That’s the good news from the report. The bad news is that like true believers, they still have faith in the concept of manmade global warming – even if there is no proof for it now. The IPCC actually increased its confidence level in its climate-change hypotheses, even though it now admits that the Earth is no warmer than it has been in pre-Industrial Age eras and that continued carbon emissions seem to have had no impact for more than 15 years. In the new report, the IPCC says it is ‘extremely likely’ – 95 per cent certain – that human influence caused more than half the temperature rises from 1951 to 2010, up from ‘very confident’ – 90 per cent certain – in 2007.

If I had tried something like that in college chemistry, I would have received an F.

Fortunately, there is a new group that is fighting the IPCC with scientific data. They are called the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC). According to their website, the NIPCC was founded “to present a comprehensive, authoritative, and realistic assessment of the science and economics of global warming” and to provide a counterweight to the U.N.’s IPCC. “Because it’s not a government agency and because its members are not predisposed to believe climate change is caused by human greenhouse gas emissions, NIPCC is able to offer an independent ‘second opinion’ of the evidence reviewed – or not reviewed – by the . . . IPCC,”

The NIPCC cite thousands of peer-reviewed articles that the IPCC ignores and find “no empirical evidence . . . to substantiate the claim that 2 [degrees Celsius] of warming presents a threat to planetary ecologies or environments,” (one of the dire threats in the IPCC’s work). They also found no evidence that “a warming will be more economically costly than an equivalent cooling,” another tenet of the IPCC. They also suggest, “Forward projections for solar cyclicity imply the next few decades may be marked by global cooling rather than warming, despite continuing CO2 emissions.”

That’s some food for though for the upcoming battles with the Obama Administration over coal mining and greenhouse gas emissions.