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HAS THE MANMADE GLOBAL WARMING THEORY FINALLY DIED?
Commentary by Harold Hough Feb/March 2009

Is 2009 the year that the theory of manmade global warming is relegated to the dustbin of history? If so, thank the weather and the economy. Remember just a few months ago when papers were warning that ski resorts would be going out of business because there wouldn’t be enough snow? Note that these same papers are now reporting snowfalls that are the best in a generation. And, as every snowstorm and deep freeze is reported, citizens are becoming less sure that global warming is a fact.

Although 2007 showed a cooling globe, 2008 has hit the manmade global warming community like a falling freezer. Temperatures have been dropping in a way wholly unpredicted by all those computer models which have been used as the main drivers of the scare. Last winter, as temperatures plummeted, many parts of the world had snowfalls on a scale not seen for decades. This winter, with the whole of Canada and half the U.S. under snow, global warming predictions look ludicrous. After several years of remaining flat, global temperatures have dropped sharply enough to cancel out much of their net rise in the 20th century.

The manmade global warming advocates have been forced to backpedal. The once, “mistake proof” computer models that forecast a warmer 2008 are being blamed for not accounting for temporary factors like ocean currents. Now we are being told that that this cooling effect is merely “masking the underlying warming trend,” and that the temperature rise will resume worse than ever by the middle of the next decade.

We are also seeing real scientists take the pseudo-scientists to task. In 2008, there was the Manhattan Declaration, where hundreds of real scientists, including many of the world's most eminent climate experts, used science to disprove the "consensus" which was politically engineered using manipulated data and computer models programmed to produce foregone conclusions.

The fact is that the high mark of the manmade global warming frenzy has passed. The Poznan conference a few months ago that promised to craft a “Son of Kyoto” treaty had an air of panic to it. Politicians facing a recession will not sign on to such unrealistic controls.

ENTER ECONOMIC REALITY

Obama may have been elected on the campaign promise of lowering our carbon output, but as president, he has already started looking at political reality and he knows that the future of the Democratic Congress and his reelection in 2012 depend on an improved economy. He will have to compromise and global warming will be one of those compromises.

A good economy and the tax base necessary to institute many of his ambitious programs will not tolerate the excessive regulation, the dislocations of moving from carbon energy sources, and the trillions of dollars necessary to institute the recommendations of the global warming community. He also knows that “emissions trading,” “carbon capture,” building tens of thousands of wind turbines, and switching vast areas of farmland from producing food to “biofuels,” are damaging and futile gestures that will have little impact.
Then there is this fact. Global warming was used by Democrats as a tool to condemn the Republican Bush administration. Since the Democrats control the government, the constraints global warming puts on a government merely limits what the Democrats can do. The bottom line is political power first, global warming second.

So, expect Obama’s manmade global warming campaign promises to be severely revised in the next few months. While the Obama Administration may not disavow global warming, expect it to be put well down the list of priorities. In fact, expect the administration to even announce that the current cooling trend will allow the government to focus on economic recovery for a few years without severely impacting the global climate.