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WHAT AN OBAMA PRESIDENCY MEANS
Commentary by Harold Hough Dec/Jan 2008

Let’s be thankful to the founding fathers for their foresight in providing for a constitutional separation of powers. Otherwise, this election could be worse than it is. Although our president-elect’s voting record was the most liberal in the Senate, he has threatened to bankrupt our industry, and as he has diametrically different views of freedom and liberty than those expressed in the Constitution, he will find putting those views into law very difficult.

For those afraid of major changes, remember Clinton’s national health care and Bush’s Social Security reform. Although both presidents had majorities in Congress, neither piece of legislation made it into law. Just because your party has control of both houses of Congress doesn’t mean you get what you want.
First, we have to remember that the bigger the majority, the more likely it is that you have mavericks in your midst. Many Democrats ran as “Republican Lite,” in Republican districts and many are from mining districts. They risk their own careers in 2010 if they fall in behind Obama’s legislative program.

Then there are the prerogatives of Congress. If Obama is seen as using his executive power to do an end run on Congress, you can be sure that Speaker of the House Pelosi and the majority leader of the Senate will put a stop to that just to protect their powers. And, since he was a senator for less than four years, he will not have developed the relationships like Lyndon Johnson, who did hold unusual control over Congress as President.

The other obstacle is the Senate Republicans. It appears that they will still have the forty votes for a filibuster, which will limit the passage of all Obama sponsored legislation. And given the smaller GOP numbers, expect the Republican members to act more like a bloc to oppose Democratic legislation. We can expect to see it first in blocking the union backed cark check legislation that would eliminate the secret ballot in union elections.

What we will see is a rush to pass Democratic legislation in the first few months of the Administration. However, as the legislation becomes more complicated and controversial, the pace will slow down dramatically. And, as we roll into 2010, just a year from now, legislation will take a back seat to electioneering, especially since the party in control of the White House usually loses seats in mid term elections.

THE BAD NEWS

So much for the good news. The bad news is that Obama can make a lot of changes through executive orders and regulation. While the GOP and Democratic congressmen from mining states can keep Obama at bay in terms of passing anti mining legislation, Obama and his cabinet members can make life much more difficult through executive fiat.

Although major mining law reform will be difficult to pass with pro-mining Senator Reid as Senate Majority Leader, Obama can issue executive orders and have his departments develop regulations that can make business harder. For instance, expect him to issue an executive order early in his administration that will close large parts of federal land to mining and mineral extraction. And, environmental regulation will only become more difficult, although the regulations must go through a public comment stage.

But, the good news is that the voters are still in charge and the Democrats have to start answering to the electorate in just over a year. If his policies have caused parts of the mining industry to collapse or energy prices go up due to his economic policies, the Democrats will have to answer for it. And, the Democrats’ House majority is predicated on holding seats in districts with a Republican advantage. As we saw in 2006, the US is always only 2 years from a major political change.

So, the mining industry will have to work hard and push back against legislation and regulations in the next year and a half. And, even as we still are in shock about electing an anti-mining president, we have to start working to elect more pro-mining congressmen in 2010.