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Mining Affairs Forum May 30, 2008 By Ken Thornberg “Real Alternatives to Gasoline Today” After three years of soaring gas prices, and with oil supplies continually threatened by those antagonistic toward America (except at today’s prices where our “enemies” use our full gas tanks to fund terrorism against us!), Americans are searching desperately for alternatives to power our vehicles, our economy, and our future. Congress, influenced by environmentalists, is pushing for ethanol and hydrogen to fuel vehicles. Oddly enough, our dinner-table corn prices are skyrocketing because farmers are growing corn, not for our own personal consumption, but for ethanol production and the tax breaks it brings. But these fuels have dramatic drawbacks that effectively stop them from ever becoming the necessary answer to our oil shortage, or more accurately oil supply, problems. Is Ethanol a Solution? Ethanol only seems to be a solution because most Americans are not aware of its fatal flaws. Without government mandates, little if any ethanol would be produced as a motor fuel. Consumers simply do not line up in droves to pay more for a fuel that delivers less mileage at a higher cost. Companies, such as Archer-Daniels-Midland, which receive a 51-cent subsidy from the taxpayers for each gallon of ethanol blended into gasoline, are eager to financially support politicians who see no harm in laws forcing states to require producers and suppliers to degrade their product by adding ethanol. You and I pay for that subsidy in addition to the outrageous gasoline prices. And of Hydrogen? Hydrogen is also flawed, and green dreams of a “hydrogen economy” are scientific nightmares. We are asked to support hydrogen as a substitute for gasoline and diesel when there are not any natural deposits of hydrogen out there to tap, something many Americans have no clue about. Hydrogen must be manufactured through the expensive consumption of other energies, only to become a hostile fuel that is difficult to transport and requires cryogenic (freezing) or high-pressure storage in gigantic tanks. What’s Our Wish List? What criteria do we need to find a replacement for petroleum? The main obvious requirement is extremely large reserves capable of hundreds of thousands of years’ supply, accessible at will by U.S. companies. Second, it must be economical (preferably costing less per BTU than petroleum). Third, no new technological advances would be required to implement its use. Fourth, a significant existing infrastructure must be in place for distribution. Last, billions of passenger miles of use must be exercised to demonstrate its effectiveness and safety. Well, there is such a resource that meets these criteria! It is a naturally occurring product made up of about 85% methane, with small amounts of ethane, propane and butane. It is called natural gas. Could this possibly have the capability of loosing the stranglehold that petroleum, and our nation’s enemies, have on our transportation industry? Natural Gas Resources and Reserves Is there enough of this product to last for generations? Current U.S. natural-gas usage is about 25 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) per year. The Natural Gas Supply Association estimates that there are approximately 1,200 Tcf in recoverable reserves, enough to provide approximately 48 years of supply—not including using it as a common means to fuel vehicles. This number must be underestimated, however, because the reserves never really seem to drop! Additional supplies seem to become available all the time. Also consider that the recent discoveries in “unconventional resources” are becoming practical to tap and could be added to the “reserve” category. The first of these are geopressurized zones, gas reservoirs at great depths (on the order of 25,000 feet) where gas would normally not be expected. The Gulf coast of the United States is particularly rich in these zones. Experts in the field estimate these reserves at 5,000 to 49,000 Tcf, which adds up to 200 to 1,960 years at current usage rates! More impressive and mysterious are the deposits of methane hydrates originally discovered in the permafrost regions of the Arctic, but later found to be in many ocean-floor formations below about 1,000 feet. Methane hydrates resemble melting ice and contain a crystalline lattice with water encapsulating a methane molecule. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that these may contain more organic carbon than the world’s coal, oil, and conventional natural gas—combined! Estimates range from 7,000 to 73,000 Tcf, or a 280 to 2,920 year supply. Even while these are considered “unconventional resources,” one should be encouraged that the Independence Project is already underway in the Gulf of Mexico tapping geopressurized domes and the Japanese have a methane hydrate extraction project scheduled for 2012. The conclusion is obvious: all indications are that the world is awash with natural gas, enough to supply both natural gas and many petroleum needs for millennia. A mean value of 67,000 Tcf of unconventional reserves indicates there is enough natural gas to provide all existing natural gas usage plus one-half the current petroleum production for 1,200 years! There is nothing like a competitor to bring down the price of petroleum, right? Does Natural Gas Make Sense Today? Since fuels are sold primarily by their BTU content, one BTU being the heat energy needed to raise the temperature of one pound of water one degree Fahrenheit, let us compare the cost per BTU of natural gas and gasoline. At today’s prices, natural gas would provide a savings of about 50% when compared to gasoline. Today there are approximately 135,000 natural gas-fueled vehicles in the United States, and over 2.5 million worldwide. Most of these utilize compressed natural gas (CNG) and operate in urban areas on schedules where refueling is part of the operations, such as for buses, trucks, and a few automobiles. CNG fuel requires a large storage tank—really big, even though they are one-third of that required for hydrogen. This means that at present, the vehicles would need large fuel tanks also, limiting many vehicles such as those that are small and get great gasoline mileage presently. However, when natural gas is cooled to –160 degrees C, 600 cubic feet of gas is condensed into one cubic foot and becomes liquid natural gas (LNG). LNG takes up only about 1/3 more thank volume than gasoline, although the tanks must be extremely well-insulated and require occasional venting to prevent pressure build up. Oil remains uncontaminated with unburned carbon, thus extending engine life. Less than half the carbon dioxide is emitted also, as compared to petroleum fuels (which should make all environmentalists happy). With lower cost, better performance, and longer engine life, why don’t more vehicles take to LNG? Only one obvious reason: they have nowhere to refuel. Idaho National Laboratory reports, “Small-scale liquefied natural gas plants, that draw from existing natural gas lines, are becoming increasingly attractive.” What Are the Roadblocks? Are there other technical roadblocks? No. Dual gasoline/natural-gas vehicles are already commercially available. Ethanol and hydrogen cannot use existing pipelines for transport, while natural gas, according to the Energy Information Administration, has:
These are the latest figures I have and they could have actually improved since then. Political Stonewalls If energy decisions were not left to politicians, special interests, leftist green movements, and our liberal media, but were instead made by the free market, scientists and engineers, most vehicles would be powered by natural gas with diesel and gasoline coming up at the rear. Leftover grease from McDonald’s French fry cookers might even be in the mix! Let’s leave the government out of the mix altogether and then we would find the free market discover the best product for the best price and best use. Government force always causes misallocations of resources, eventually resulting in economic damage to both consumer and producer—an economic fact that many politicians never seem to understand, or deliberately ignore. The whole ethanol scheme is a perfect example of this. |
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